Four climate futures: the case for change
We know the science. We've seen the warnings. Yet, climate action still lags behind the urgency of the crisis. The problem? Data alone doesn't move people—stories do. From global catastrophe to local consequences, Lushano Myburgh explores how reframing climate change as a personal, tangible reality may be the key to real change.
Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our time. Yet, despite the mountains of data and the overwhelming scientific consensus on its urgency, there's still a divide in how we respond to it. What if, rather than relying solely on facts and figures, we could shift the conversation to resonate on a more personal, emotional level?
At the heart of this conversation lies a powerful tool: storytelling. The medium that conveys key messages will shape our decisions as individuals and as societies. They can inspire, rally, and, most importantly, move us to act. If we can illustrate the impact of climate change in a way that speaks to our emotions and imaginations, we may just find the collective will to create the change we so urgently need.
The challenge: thinking beyond the present
As human beings, we are naturally wired to prioritise the present. We respond to immediate needs and concerns, while the longer-term, more abstract challenges often fall by the wayside. Climate change isn't an issue for a distant future. It's here, it's now, and it's growing.
Many people are unaware of the dire consequences unfolding across the globe. After all, we've heard countless warnings from environmental groups, climate scientists, and political leaders. And yet, how many of us have engaged with the depth of the problem?
Unfortunately, it takes a personal connection to make us care - we see this in the way we react to crises: most people might not feel much for the famine in a faraway country, but when faced with the opportunity to help at a local soup kitchen, they feel compelled to act. The same principle applies to climate change. It's not until it hits close to home—until we are confronted with a personal crisis—that we start to wake up and make the needed changes.
The dangers of climate change: what's really at stake?
Science has made it clear: how we live today is not sustainable. Unfortunately, loud rhetoric from individuals with no proof or evidence to the contrary is casting doubt about the dangers of climate change and that the planet will somehow naturally overcome the impacts. The planet indeed has an incredible ability to adapt – but one variable was not present in the previous cycles of Earth's climate evolution: Human activity—especially the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and the reckless consumption of natural resources.
Take, for example, the story of the Red Forest near Chornobyl - an area of woodland that died, poisoned by radiation, turning the forest into a lifeless wasteland. Yet, against all odds, nature began to regenerate. As a result of the lack of human activity due to the high levels of radioactivity in the area, within just 30 years, the forest has almost fully recovered, and animals have returned to their once-dead environment. It's a powerful story of resilience, but it's also a stark reminder that human activity can impede nature's ability to recover. If we don't make significant changes to our lives, Earth won't be enough to support 8 billion people—and counting.
What happens when the systems that sustain life on Earth—our ecosystems, food, and water—begin to collapse? The truth is, we don't know. But the risks are enormous. Scientists are almost unanimous in their predictions: vast swathes of the Earth could become uninhabitable, resulting in mass loss of life.
The question is: why do we continue to ignore the science? Why do we cling to the comforting narratives of sceptics who say everything will be fine in the end? The answer is simple: the sceptic narrative suits our interests. It's easier to deny the problem, to believe that it won't affect us in our lifetime, than to face the reality of what's coming.
The four climate futures: envisioning our planetary futures
EY Four Futures, launched at COP 28 and presented in Malta during EY's 2024 Future Realised conference, uses storytelling to paint a picture of four distinct futures the world could face depending on our choices today. Inspired by a framework developed by futurist Jim Dator, these scenarios show us what the best- and worst-case scenarios of the future might look like if we continue on our current path or take drastic action to change course to a radically new system.
Combining science and facts, scenario analysis and disruption map techniques, this method of discussing climate change can illustrate the stakes involved in sustainability efforts. EY's New Economy research unit has developed what each of those four scenarios would be like 30 years into the future:
Staying on our current path:
Business as Usual (BAU): Based on our current trajectory, global warming is projected to increase by 3˚C by the end of the century. This scenario represents a world where action is delayed, and half-measures are implemented in the face of mounting evidence. It's a future defined by inaction and missed opportunities—a world where climate change is deeply embedded in the fabric of everyday life, but nothing is done to stop it.
Collapse: Climate inaction leads to economic and environmental breakdown in this scenario. Global warming rises to nearly 4˚C by the end of the century, and the consequences are catastrophic. Infrastructure collapses, food and water become scarce, and entire ecosystems fail. This is a future of survival, not prosperity, where the effects of climate change are too much to handle.
Shifting to a new system:
Constraint: Governments step in as the effects of climate change become undeniable. Strict regulations are imposed to curb the damage, and the world works frantically to limit global warming to 2.5˚C. It's a future where we've left it too late to prevent disaster, and the only option left is to implement harsh measures to limit the damage.
Transform: Business and society voluntarily undergo a radical transformation - innovation in sustainability becomes the norm, and global warming is limited to a rise of just 1.5˚C by the end of the century. Humanity embraces the challenge of climate change and adapts with ingenuity and resilience, creating a world where the future is brighter and more sustainable than the one we face today.
What will Malta's future look like?
While Malta's carbon emissions are a tiny fraction of the global total, the island is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Warming in the Mediterranean is happening faster than in other parts of Europe, and the island's small size and isolation make it especially susceptible to the effects of changing weather patterns.
EY Malta has developed the Malta Four Climate Futures, tailored to the island's unique circumstances. Whilst acknowledging that this is not a perfect science, then that there is a degree of scenario analysis involved – global trends, historical events, and our advanced understanding of biodiversity and global weather patterns allow for a reasonable inference of Malta's Four Futures. EY will bring these futures to life with visuals to depict the impact of climate change on the Maltese islands and ensure stakeholders are equipped with the knowledge needed to act.
This will offer a glimpse into the future and pose the question: will we continue with business as usual with rising sea levels, water scarcity, increased reliance on imported food, environmental degradation and power cuts becoming the norm? These challenges are already being faced with a planetary warming of a 1.4˚C increase over pre-industrial levels and are relatively mild compared to the impacts of an increase in global temperatures to 2.7/3˚C degrees. The possibility of the island becoming increasingly uninhabitable due to the consequences of climate change and unsustainable development is not entirely remote.
Malta has a choice: continue with the status quo and risk the impact that could have on the next generation, or embrace change and take action to adapt and prepare for a more resilient, sustainable society.
The stakes are high, and the time to act is now.
The road ahead
The challenges ahead are daunting—climate change won't be solved overnight, and the transition to a sustainable future won't be painless. But the opportunities are enormous. New industries are emerging, cleaner technologies are advancing, and businesses that adopt are thriving. If we want a future where the planet is liveable and future generations can thrive, we must act today.
We will discuss these scenarios at EY's Four Climate Futures event on 29th April and explore actionable steps towards a sustainable future. We are offering free places to MONEY readers with the booking code MoneyMalta4F25. Don't miss the opportunity to be part of this critical dialogue and gain the knowledge needed to help shape a better tomorrow. Visit www.ey.com/en_mt/events/change-4-futures to book your place.
Lushano Myburgh is a manager with EY's Sustainability team.
